Track sprint progress: ideal burndown vs actual remaining work with variance analysis.
Formulas: Ideal Daily Burn = Total Points / Sprint Days Ideal Remaining at Day N = Total − (Ideal Daily × N) Variance = Actual Remaining − Ideal Remaining Required Velocity = Remaining / Days Left
Reading a Burndown Chart
On track: Actual line follows ideal line closely
Behind: Actual line is above ideal (more work remaining than expected)
Ahead: Actual line is below ideal (team is completing work faster)
Flat line: No progress — blockers or scope creep
When to Worry
If at mid-sprint you've completed less than 40% of work, the sprint is at risk. Consider reducing scope, adding resources, or carrying items to the next sprint.